The current phase of MENA debt capital markets is defined by the presence of geopolitical risk and the market’s ability to function effectively despite it. MENA issuers have raised US$133.9 billion in the international markets so far this year, up almost 9 per cent on the US$123.1 billion recorded over the same period in 2025 — growth delivered despite a challenging backdrop of conflict. Just as revealing as the headline is how quickly fundamentals returned to the forefront of investor decisions, with the market rebuilding around a broader base of borrowers and a more discriminating investor response.
The market view was quite different at the start of the conflict. Activity slowed materially in March on the back of regional tensions, with monthly supply falling to roughly US$3 billion — down almost 60 per cent on the same month last year. The subsequent recovery, however, was both swift and significant. By late April and May, activity had resumed across sovereign, financial institution and corporate issuers, and across the second quarter more than 40 issuers returned to the markets pricing some US$66 billion across 85 tranches — demonstrating that neither borrowers nor investors were prepared to remain on the sidelines indefinitely.
The resurgence has also been broad-based with each sector across Sovereigns, Corporates and government-related issuers, and Banks driving roughly a third of the issuance total for the first half of the year. From a year-on-year growth perspective, Corporate and Bank issuers have seen the strongest growth while Sovereign volumes have largely held steady. This issuance pattern of course is reassuring given that a market supported by several borrower groups shows greater depth and resilience versus one reliant largely on Sovereign issuance alone, giving investors more opportunities to assess relative value and form individual credit views across the region.
Investor behaviour through the period of heightened sensitivity provides an equally important signal. The repricing itself was orderly: high-grade GCC sovereign spreads widened by some 20 to 35 basis points at the peak of the disruption in late March, and by mid-May the majority of GCC sovereign paper was trading at or within a few basis points of its pre-conflict levels — a round trip completed in a matter of weeks. Investors increasingly differentiated between short-term geopolitical developments and the deeper fiscal, institutional and policy foundations supporting the region.
That differentiation reflects how the region is now assessed. Sovereign balance sheets, institutional frameworks, economic diversification programmes and issuer-specific fundamentals continued to inform investment decisions, with regional credit no longer treated as a single risk exposure. Sovereigns, banks, corporates and government-related entities are assessed on their own merits, with investors differentiating across countries, sectors and maturities, and taking into account how regional headlines may impact individual credits on their own.
Standard Chartered has been proud to lead the lion share of this resurgent market supply, driving over US$80 billion of MENA issuance with a market share rising to among the highest on record, and ranking #1 across the region – reflecting the strength of the Bank’s regional expertise, global reach and continued commitment to its clients.
As we enter into the critical post summer period, the outlook remains constructive. Funding pipelines are building, and issuers and international investors alike continue to seek high-quality GCC opportunities. The region’s resilience will nevertheless continue to be tested — not only by the possibility of further market volatility, but by broader global themes, not least the world’s technology hyperscalers for example, whose record borrowing programmes are intensifying the competition for global fixed income liquidity. The region enters that contest from a position of demonstrated strength and resilience.
